Wealthy Families Expect Home Values to Climb

Wealthy Families Expect Home Values to Climb

By James R. Hagerty From The Wall Street Journal Online

Even amid signs of a housing-market slowdown, most wealthy people expect the value of their primary homes to continue rising over the next five years, according to a survey sponsored by PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

The Pittsburgh banking company said 65% of those surveyed expect the value of their homes to rise by at least 10% over the next five years, and 31% expect an increase of more than 20% during the same period. Only 7% expected a decline.The survey was conducted online by Harris Interactive Inc. this fall among 1,485 adults with annual incomes of $150,000 or more, if employed, and assets available for investment of at least $500,000 (among those employed) or at least $1 million (among those retired). PNC is active in financing commercial real estate, but has only a small presence in the home-mortgage market.

Over the past five years, the average U.S. home price has increased by more than 50%, and prices have more than doubled in many cities. But even a rise of 10% over the next five years would be welcomed by many who fear the boom of the past few years will lead to a slump.In recent months, the housing market has shown signs of slowing as inventories of unsold homes pile up. "The party may be over for those who have been flipping houses and using real estate to get rich quick," said Nicholas Buss, research director for PNC's real-estate division. "But, in general, established wealthy Americans haven't been speculative buyers, and they remain solidly confident in the long-term value of their real estate holdings."

Dean Baker, a Washington economist who is a longstanding bear on home prices, said the survey shows many people are unrealistic about the outlook. Mr. Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, noted that interest rates are rising, income growth is slow, and "we're building homes faster than we ever did before." Even so, Mr. Baker said, "this bubble has gone on way longer than I expected."The survey found that New Englanders were the most cautious about housing. Only one in 10 New Englanders expected a rise of more than 20% over five years, and 18% predicted a decline. In Florida, by contrast, half of those responding expected an increase of more than 20%.

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